Hon. Yussif Adamu also known as Naanyama who is the parliamentary candidate for NDC in the 2020 general elections has a bigger chance to win the Parliamentary elections in the Tolon Constituency, despite the opulence being exhibited by the NPP parliamentary candidate.
In 2016, the constituency had 100 polling stations spread out in 10 zones within 8 traditional areas. NDC won 58 of these polling stations while NPP won the remaining 42.
Nyankpala, which is one of the strongholds of the NDC in the Tolon Constituency with 10 polling stations, pulled 3,447 valid votes representing 67% for the NDC while NPP had 1,699 votes representing 33% giving a vote difference of 1,748 (34%) in favour of NDC.
Some Communities in the Nyankpala traditional area also pulled 2,748 votes for the NDC while the NPP had 1,528 of the votes representing 64% and 36% respectively for the two parties resulting in a vote difference of 1,220 (28%) in favour of the NDC.
Tolon on the other hand, being a strong hold of the NPP with 6 polling stations, gave the NPP 2,547 valid votes while the NDC had just 747 of the votes cast representing 77% and 23% respectively with a difference of 1,800 (54%) votes in favour of the NPP. This difference in votes between the two parties was greater in Tolon (54%) which went in favour of NPP as compared to the difference in Nyankpala (34%) going in favour of the NDC.
Communities within the Tolon traditional area garnered 3,318 votes for the NPP and 613 votes for the NDC representing 84% and 16% respectively. The vote difference between the NPP and the NDC in these communities was 2,705 valid votes representing 68% in favour of the NPP.
Considering the votes obtained in the communities NDC led, if those wins was consolidated with larger margins, there was no way the NPP could have won the 2016 general elections in the constituency.
For instance, at SARI No.2, NDC had 224 votes while NPP had 222 votes; a difference of just 2 votes as compared to Tolon LA Prim. Sch polling station where the best performance of NDC was 281 while NPP had 349 votes; a difference of 68 votes.
The gaining of more votes by the NPP in the strongholds of the NDC which helped them to close the gaps is what propelled them into winning the elections and maintaining the Tolon seat.
On the other hand, if the NDC could either give a wider margin as in the case of Yipelgu where NDC performed satisfactorily by pulling 562 against NPP’s 131 votes with a vote difference of 431 or by depressing the voter gain of NPP in their strongholds and improving on its performance by closing gaps in the NPP dominated areas.
Holding to the above analysis, with a new voter roll of 130 polling stations, out of which majority is based in places NDC led in the 2016 general elections, coupled with the united and formidable front leading the Naanyama Campaign, it wouldn’t be out of place to project a win for the NDC and Hon. Yussif Adamu.
Interestingly, the 2020 registration exercise reveal the numeral strengths of every community or electoral area in the constituency where numbers in the NDC dominated areas are greater as compared to places NPP dominates.
For instance, let’s consider places that had the greatest turn out in terms of registrants; Nyankpala North and Tali zone; both have 10 electoral areas each. Nyankpala north have a total of 5,205 voters while Tali zone have a total of 4,084 voters.
We can all recall the acrimony that accompanied registration in the Tali Zone where about 88% of the Nonresidents or if you like “strangers” were bused by the NPP parliamentary candidate to register. Upon all this, the difference between the two is 1,121 voters in favour of Nyankpala North, an area dominated by NDC.
All things being equal (Ceteris paribus), assuming the 2020 general elections receives a voter turnout of 80% in the constituency with just the above two electoral areas mentioned, Nyankpala North will then have 4,164 voters casting their votes on election day and Tali zone will have 3,267 voters casting their votes with the exclusion of the “new gains” in Gburimani (home-town of the NDC Parliamentary Candidate) and Zantani (over-seas), the resultant votes thus – maintaining the percentages of the previous election in both strongholds of the two parties (i.e 67% and 77% for NDC and NPP respectively), NDC will garner 2,790 votes while NPP will also pull 2,516 votes translating into percentiles, 53% and 47% respectively, which represents a gallant win for Hon. Yussif Adamu and H.E John Dramani Mahama.
Another revealing factor is the enthusiasm that has characterized the 2020 campaigns of Hon. Adamu Yussif Naanyama, the NDC Parliamentary candidate. People out of free will accompany the candidate where ever he goes out of his down-to-earth nature which has built his charisma and love among the youth and elderly across the length and breadth of the Tolon constituency. This has given him the acolyte “Salolana” to wit; the ‘man with many people’.
In 7 days’ time, the choice of God Almighty will be heard from the people of Tolon Constituency for Hon. Yussif Adamu to be elected as MP and Ghana for H.E John Dramani Mahama as President.
By: Alhassan Sule
(Fmr. TEIN President, UDS-Nyankpala)
Disclaimer: The views/opinions expressed in the above article are solely those of the author and does not represent those of TamaleOnline News.